Presidential campaign gathers speed. From the bright show to the civil conflict threat

Registration without haste

Possibly, the chances to get the president named Shevchenko would increase when the people’s deputy Oleksandr Shevchenko registered. He is also not among the leaders of the campaign, although a friend from Lviv assured me that Mr. Shevchenko is quite popular in western Ukraine. There is already a denial of registration. It was received by a lawyer Volodymyr Ratush due to inconsistency with the current legislation of the submitted documents. He, like Ihor Shevchenko, appealed to the CEC on the first day of the election campaign.

After Christmas, the Central Election Commission registered the leader of the Social Democratic Party Serhiy Kaplin, Lviv city mayor Andriy Sadovyi, self-nominated Vitaliy Skotsyk and the head of the Justice Party of Ukraine Valentyn Nalyvaichenko. The Communist leader Petro Symonenko also drew attention to himself. He was nominated by the fellow party members, but Mr. Symonenko is unlikely to be registered – the KPU has been banned. However, nothing can stop the main Communist from becoming a technical candidate as a self-nominee. The documents of the MPs Vitaliy Kupriy and Yevheniy Muraev and the head of the Civic Position Party of Ukraine Anatoliy Hrytsenko are under CEC consideration. But the ranking leaders are in no hurry – registration will last up to February 8. It is expected that the main candidates will visit the CEC after the Epiphany holiday.

“Canvassing of a presidential candidate begins the day after the day he was officially registered by the CEC, and not after announcing his intention to run the election”, Natalia Lynnyk, deputy head of the “Committee on Voters of Ukraine,” the all-Ukrainian public organization, said to DUMKA. “That is why some potential candidates may deliberately postpone the submission of documents to the CEC before the beginning of February, in order to get at least one free month when it is possible to canvass without restrictions, to spend funds without limitation and without reporting under the current legislation. An advertising disorder indicates one thing: serious electoral reform or attempts to make it are needed, if it is too late to change something at the presidential elections, then for parliamentary ones, this issue in the legislation has to be at least partially resolved”.

Long before the start of the campaign, potential candidates met with voters, their billboards were difficult to count. The agitation false start, isn’t it?

“This is a common thing, some elections are over and others start immediately”, said political analyst Oleksiy Holobutskyi. “Leaders have parties that are constantly engaged in agitation. Just now we are entering an active official part of the election campaign”.

 Reference:

The ban on publicizing the results of the polls will come into force on March 29. On the “pre-election silence day” – March 30 – canvassing is prohibited. March 31 – first round, April 21 – the second one. The results of the voting will be announced no later than on May 1, and officially they will be announced publicly in three days. Inauguration will take place within 30 days.

 Poroshenko vs Tymoshenko?

On December 23, elections at the United Territorial Communities, which are called “rehearsals of presidential or parliamentary elections», were held. Can their results be transferred to the upcoming campaign?

“This is a current political event”, Oleksandr Kochetkov, a political analyst said to DUMKA. “Both Poroshenko and Tymoshenko, counting on different methods, tried to declare their victory in the projection: they won here – will win there too. There is a certain link here, but this is not a good basis for forecasting the presidential elections”.

And what about the ratings? Different social surveys have different indicators, although, as a rule, all the same individuals are leading. In particular, Yulia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, Volodymyr Zelensky. Sociologists predict the second round for the latter, although the showman’s behavior also causes the jeering of specialists. The actor openly asked for help with the election program, which showed that he is far from politics. Should a separate political figure ask for the help of the “audience”? A lot of experts predict Tymoshenko and Poroshenko meeting in the second round.

“Firstly, the election price is extremely high, the society feels it, therefore, a high turnout is expected, and it can be record-breaking”, said Oleksandr Kochetkov. “Secondly, the stakes are extremely high not only for the country, but also for those who take part in the election. This is primarily subjected to president Poroshenko. He began to judge the presidents. Accordingly, all subsequent presidents become cognizable”.

The loss of power will mean criminal problems for the supreme leadership of the state and its environment. It is possible that during the campaign, more dirty technologies, bloody provocations will take place.

“On the other hand, it will be the most vivid and creative, the most powerful campaign on the part of certain candidates”, continued Mr. Kochetkov. “And Volodymyr Zelensky has already started making a bright show on it. If Poroshenko and Tymoshenko appear in the second round, then it’s hard to predict who of them will be immediately recognized as defeated. There is a great threat of civil conflict because the losing part will not be willing to admit it. And the conflict may be not only civil but also armed”.

The Kremlin is already here

For the safety of voters, the CEC eliminated all five polling stations in Russia, and Ukraine has also left Russian observers behind. Recently, without the participation of the Kremlin, no elections are held, even in the United States and Europe. What to say about Ukraine? The influence of Russia on election processes here lasts for decades.

“Russia’s intervention can be partially countered by transferring of Facebook office to Kyiv, with tough sanctions against the pro-Russian fifth column in Ukraine. The latter is quite difficult to do in the existing legal field”, Natalia Lynnyk is convinced. “That is why it is necessary to strengthen the citizens’ enlightenment through TV and social networks, bloggers on possible propaganda provocations by the Russian Federation and its representatives in Ukraine”.

A hybrid war affects the characteristics of external intervention. Experts agree that the Kremlin does not have a chance to get “their” president in Ukraine – Yuriy Boyko or Oleksandr Vilkul can hardly get to the second round. However, Putin will be satisfied with the pro-Ukrainian head of state, too.

“Previously, they simply bought certain candidates, they will not do that this time and their representative Viktor Medvedchuk will take part in the parliamentary campaign”, said Oleksandr Kochetkov. “The plan is the following: Poroshenko remains the president and has no specific influence, Medvedchuk becomes the speaker, Boyko becomes the Prime Minister. And Medvedchuk together with Boyko make decisions on that the Kremlin wants from Ukraine. I am convinced that this will not happen, but the concept of such an influence exists”.

The thoughts of MPs

How will the upcoming elections differ from the previous ones and can we trust the sociological ratings? How to neutralize the Kremlin’s interference in the election campaign, whether some factors can interfere with the election on March 31? These questions DUMKA addressed to the people’s deputies of different factions.

Ihor Mosiychuk, the faction of the Oleh Lyashko’s Radical Party:

“Even in 2014, having elected the president, Ukrainians did not realize that they were choosing the commander-in-chief. After almost five years of war, this awareness is there. And the fact that a person is chosen to bring peace to the Ukrainian land, to return the occupied territories, to win the war will be precisely the key moment of the election campaign. Almost all of the closed ratings, that the parties make for themselves, are manipulations. One of the latter gives Oleksandr Vilkul 0% in Donbas. This is ridiculous because he is nominated by the part of the Opposition Bloc, affiliated with Rinat Akhmetov, who has enterprises there. It will be one of the dirtiest election campaigns. Law enforcement and anti-corruption authorities will play their political game depending on those who influence them. I liked the pre-New Year’s interview with the Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov, who said, “Regardless of the authorities or the opposition, the police will not allow confusion, including assaulting the polling stations”. It is very important. The SBU has to deal with so-called bloggers, political scientists who voiced Kremlin’s propaganda. The only factor that can interfere the election is a direct invasion of the RF regular troops”.

Iryna Suslova, the faction of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc party:

“In the history of independent Ukraine, there were no two presidential elections that would be a mirror image of one another. They will be unique in 2019, too. Unlike all the elections until 2014, these ones will be different by the factor of external aggression, and from the previous will expression, they will differ in a smaller degree of the mobilization of society, which was then heated by the annexation of the Crimea, the events in the East and the post-Maidan mood. Sociological ratings are not an exact picture of how people will vote in the elections. It is only the fixation of the electoral situation at the time of the survey on the basis of scientific sociological instruments. And we should trust only the data published by research centers with a positive reputation and appropriate opportunities for collecting and analyzing information, a detailed description of the methodology of the survey. The interference of a foreign state in the internal affairs of Ukraine must be prevented by the responsible offices, first of all, the SBU. The role of the media is also important. An important factor in the hygiene of the information space is the inadmissibility of replication of information of doubtful origin without proper check. The position of the public sector will be significant. Together, we must ensure that the election campaign, the election day, and the outcome of the election are held in a peaceful atmosphere. Any instigation of hysteria, incitement of hostility between Ukrainians, the creation of a line of the split in the society will be useful for the enemy. This does not mean that there should not be any sharp debates and discussions. But we must understand: presidents come and go, and Ukraine remains for us and our children. I am convinced that the elections will take place on March 31 in any case”.

Roman Semenukha, Samopomich Union faction:

“Sociology in Ukraine has largely discredited itself. I cannot help but mention the recent poll of a Dnieper company, where 80% of the respondents agreed to vote. This is a fake. There were always 60-65% voters in the presidential election. There are parties that have not yet hung up the boards, and some polls already show that they have 5-7%. A huge amount of people have not made a decision yet. Tymoshenko and Poroshenko have the worst balance of trust-distrust. The results will differ significantly from social surveys. Andriy Sadovyi is ready for the next portion of the dirt, his position really differs from others. For the first time in 20 years there is a person with managerial experience, with a team that does not depend on any oligarch. We should choose the president, who will not depend on the Kremlin, to oppose the aggression. And the current president does everything not to resist. If he has not done anything for more than four years, what will he do for a month or two? Medvedchuk is his official representative in negotiations with Putin. Turbulence is high, but I hope that Ukrainians will have the opportunity to peacefully eliminate the oligarchic power”.

Taras Kremin, People’s Front Party of Ukraine faction :

“Nothing unexpected will happen. I see presidential elections in two rounds with several leaders. But the year is also complicated by parliamentary elections, and it is extremely important that a newly elected president find touch with the majority of the Verkhovna Rada. Perhaps it is necessary to change the composition of the Cabinet and adequately prepare for parliamentary elections. Everything should be considered in the complex. Social surveys have different tasks, depending on who they are funded by. An accurate map of political interests will be formed closer to the election. This campaign cannot be called the dirtiest one. The elections will be more technologically-driven by new technologies that have not been tested in Ukraine yet. At the same time, I do not believe in voting by the administrative resource. In the end, everything indicates that we are entering democratic elections including possible violations by one or another candidate, but I believe that these elections will be radically different from all in the last 10-15 years. It would be difficult to neutralize the Kremlin’s intervention. We see this in the elections in Europe and the United States. The parliament should be ready to respond adequately to the possible challenges of the Russian occupation authorities, to think about the lines of collision with the enemy in the East of the country. And, of course, the consolidation of society. We must maximize cooperation with European and global partners. We need observers, including ones from public organizations, OSCE. We need the voters’ turnout. It is impossible to allow Ukrainians not to take the opportunity to confirm the pro-European Euro-Atlantic choice of the country, the approach to NATO standards. I doubt that something could interfere with the conduct of the elections. In 2014, it was much more difficult. As a former head of the Mykolaiv Regional Council, I recall attempts to create “Russian World” on the south, holding pseudo referendums. It seems that Ukraine has learned to correct mistakes, have the resources and opportunities to prevent any attempts to escalate the conflict”.

Viktor Tsvilikhovskyi