The hypocritical camouflage has been completely taken off. Kremlin openly showed its wild grin in the Black Sea firing Ukrainian ships and seizing 24 Ukrainian sailors. Insolent action was taken not by half-mythical “little green men” or by “rebels”, but by the real Russian military. After the well-prepared provocation, the forgotten life-size ghost of Novorossiya is coming.
Dancing with Putin
Statements, versions, predictions … The world is worried about what happened, although Russian aggressors are accustomed to accusations. As always, they are trying to make Ukraine guilty. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump canceled a meeting with Russian colleague Vladimir Putin during the G20 summit in Argentina, in some parts part of Ukraine there is a martial law which has lasted for two weeks, our ports in the Azov Sea are blocked, and Ukrainian seamen arrested near Crimea are kept in Moscow.
These events are plain to see, they will continue, but they are just the top of the iceberg. The real matter is hidden much deeper and is associated with the further seizure of our territories by the aggressor. This was stated by the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in an interview to the German Funke Media Group: “Moscow is trying to get a land bridge from the occupied Donbas to the occupied Crimea, seizing Mariupol and Berdyansk. If some politicians do not stop flirting and dancing with Putin, then no one should exclude the threat of Russian’s aggression escalation”.
Similar views about the threat to Ukrainian port cities at the Azov Sea, Berdyansk and Mariupol, are shared at a special session of the UN Security Council by the Permanent Representative of Ukraine in the UN Volodymyr Yelchenko. This view is shared by many experts, and some of them add to the Azov ports some other locations in the south and east of Ukraine, which are threatened by the occupation of the Kremlin. That is, we are talking about the war deployment on a large territory of our country. It seems, that the postulate that Putin will attack will get a real incarnation in the eyes of even prominent skeptics, who still deny the obvious.
Ports are in danger
“These scenarios are absolutely possible,” Dmytro Levus, the head of the Centre for Public Research Ukrainian Meridian told to DUMKA. “How long Russia was demonstrating its aggressive policy? The most spectacular moment is the seizure of the Crimea. Until 2014, nobody could think that it was possible. And if one such thing already happened, why cannot we suppose that it will happen again?
Usually, it is said that the operation of seizing Crimea was hybrid, allegedly the participation of Russian armed forces was hidden, and now this would be impossible. But Russia is gradually stepping over this “impossible”, and the seizure of Ukrainian warships in the Black Sea is an evidence of this. The scenario can be as follows: at the first stage, everything will be masked under the military operation of the so-called DPR and LPR. This is about the offensive along the Azov Sea. Russian Navy and the Border Security Force of the FSB can start acting in the Azov Sea under the flags of DPR.”
Unfortunately, the project “Novorossiya” hadn’t been buried, although the attempt of its implementing in 2014 was a failure. Even then in Moscow, it was planned to capture Berdyansk and Mariupol as important lucrative ports.
“After facing a strong repulse and massive rejection of the “fraternal peoples” idea by the Ukrainians, Russia failed to implement the blitzkrieg in 2014-15, which led to the weakening of one of the groups in the Kremlin and, as a result, to adjusting the plans,” Ruslan Ryhovanov, the head of development centre of the Unified Coordinated Hub “Donbass” informed DUMKA. “A slow pressure on our territory had begun. After the construction of Kerch Bridge, the Russian Federation began to control the Azov coast blocking the Azov-Black Sea flow.
According to open sources, Russia continues to accumulate weapons on the territory of some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, conducts training of its officers there, and develops military plans. Given the political instability associated with the electoral process in Ukraine, the situation with the formation of the local Ukrainian Church, acceleration of events is quite possible. A series of mop-ups in some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, ‘Fake Elections’ show that the ‘Novorossiya’ plan can be launched in a new way, but this time by means of the direct aggression of the Russian Federation. Azov coast is in danger of the occupation, namely Mariupol and Berdyansk.”
Is the “key” in Kherson region?
Ivan Vinnyk, secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense, agrees that Putin wants to create a “Novorossiya” for a long time. According to the people’s deputy, if Ukraine at one stage allowed him to do this, he would have already implemented it. But the aggressor needs not only the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk.
“The deterrent factor in this scenario is not free territories of Zaporizhia or Donetsk regions adjoint to the Azov Sea, Kherson region – that’s what important,” said Ivan Vinnik. “Its seizure opens the way to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant and the Northern Crimean Canal, from which the water was blocked for the Crimea. Nova Kakhovka is a strategic place, like the whole Kherson region. This is the key to the creation of “Novorossiya” and, from the point of view of Ukraine, a foothold, which in any case should be protected.”
One cannot ignore Putin’s far-reaching plans, which are not limited to the Azov Sea and the land bridge from the occupied part of Donbas to the annexed Crimea.
“Russia not only wants to make the land bridge to Crimea, but also to connect it with the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, cutting off Ukraine from the sea,” said Viktor Yagun, Major General, a reservist of the SBU, and former deputy head of the SBU. “And to reach the Dnipro, opening the gateways and giving water to the Crimea, because, as experts assure, 2019 will be critical – irreversible changes in the ecology of the peninsula will take place, and it will be necessary to decide on the partial eviction of residents of northern Crimea because of the impossibility of normal residence there. The only question is: will there be an offensive from the north, or are they planning to join Kharkiv and Dnipro? ”
President Petro Poroshenko warned that along the Ukrainian state border, on the temporarily occupied territories of the east and the Crimea, Russia launched a ground-based group of more than 80 000 soldiers, with hundreds of tanks, planes, helicopters and other military equipment. In the Black, Azov, and Aegean seas there are dozens of Russian ships and a lot of submarines.
“Ukrainians should not be afraid of such a big amount of Russian soldiers,” Dmytro Snehirev, co-head of the PRAVA SPRAVA citizens’ initiative assured the readers of DUMKA. “These are not the forces of invasion, concentrated in a certain direction. It is about 80 000 of Russians, who are centered on all parts of the Ukrainian-Russian border: 32 000 in the territory of the occupied Crimea, 7000-8000 in the occupied Luhansk and Donetsk regions, 40 000 in the Belgorod and Rostov regions of the Russian Federation, which border with Ukraine. If the Russians wanted to create a land bridge from the occupied Donbas to the occupied Crimea, they would have done it in 2014 and at the beginning of 2015, at the moment of an active escalation of the military counteraction. But now the statistics of bombardments indicates that escalation doesn’t occur. There is no information on the active redeployment of military units”.
Why doesn’t Russia escalate? According to Mr. Snehirev, the answer is in the words of President Putin, who during the Argentine summit of the G20 stated, that there is nothing to speak about with the current Ukrainian leadership. The Russian president will wait for the end of the presidential and parliamentary elections, giving the opportunity to exploit the issue of bad peace by parties like For Life.
Western reaction
Despite the open manifestation of the aggression of the Kremlin, the West is still not too eager to spoil relations with it. First of all, it concerns influential European players who traditionally express concern, but are not ready for more radical measures. One of the most important factors is trying to take into account their economic interests as much as possible. In particular, Germany expects benefits from the launch of the North Stream – 2 gas pipeline.
Economic sanctions against the aggressor are likely to increase, but it is unlikely that the situation can be solved only with their help. Political, diplomatic, even probably military levers are needed. In the interview, Petro Poroshenko assured: “Unlike Russian provocative behaviour and incitement to even more dramatic events, Ukraine has always advocated political and diplomatic means for resolving the conflict”
And what about NATO? Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the North Atlantic Alliance will closely monitor the situation in the Black Sea and increase its military presence in the region. According to him, last year the period of NATO ships presence grew from 80 to 120 days. In addition, the region has a mission of air policing and a multinational brigade in Romania.
“It is possible, that in a month we can get some military situation on the land border,” predicted Viktor Yahun. “It is necessary to separate the Azov and Black Sea basins. We forget about three powerful NATO member countries that have a fleet in the Black Sea area – Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania. Another thing is that, in accordance with international treaties, the presence of warships in the Azov Sea without the consent of Ukraine and Russia is impossible and will be considered an open international military conflict. Other NATO countries are allowed only for some time to stay in the Black Sea, but their presence on a rotating basis is not ruled out. The same is applied to NATO ships stay on a permanent basis, for example, in Odessa or other Ukrainian cities. However, we still have to search the way out.”
It is up to the parliament
In early December, the former special adviser of the US Army’s commander in Europe, Mark Voyger made quite a clear statement about this situation. Like, after Russia actually denounced the 2003 agreement on the use of the Azov Sea together with Ukraine, the waters of the basin should be recognized as international, and Ukraine should invite NATO by opening the sea for navigation of Alliance vessels.
“We must independently denounce the agreement with the Russian Federation on the joint use of the waters of the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait (since 2003 – author’s note). Then the Azov Sea will lose its territorial status and become open,” said Ivan Vinnyk. “And such seas are open to any ships, including the NATO fleet. We can meet in the parliament and cancel the agreement; we just need a political will. I appealed to the leadership of the Verkhovna Rada several times to put this question on the agenda, but so far we don’t see it.”
Ivan Vinnyk says it is possible, that this will happen in the next few days. However, the question of changing the status of the Azov Sea is not easy and takes a lot of time. Although it shouldn’t be delayed, if we show the political will.
“The main thing is to start,” Ruslan Rihovanov is convinced. “An example of the implementation of international law can be commercial arbitration, including the one with Gazprom. A good indicator is also the meeting of the UN Security Council on the seizure of our vessels in the Kerch Strait when the participating countries supported Ukraine. In fact, from now on we can talk about speeding up the timing of the decision and, if there is political will, we can decide on the issue of international waters in a year or two”.
Thoughts on this issue
“How to prevent the strenthening of the conflict with the Russian Federation in the east and south of Ukraine and the losses of our territories?” – DUMKA asked some well-known Ukrainians.
Halyna Tretiakova, an expert on economic issues:
“We need to become stronger. Both in terms of economy, and militarization. Economically: to grow faster than the world, which means an increase of more than 3% per year. Compete in international markets. Be able to concentrate resources through the financial system, have a financial sector, which can be trusted, which means to regulate it strongly”.
Volodymyr Honskyi, publicist, bard, master of ceremonies of EuroMaidan:
“I speak not only about new threats but also about the complete liberation of Ukraine. 1) Strongly intensify the demands to the countries that guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty under the Budapest Memorandum and the European Union towards a complete economic and financial blockade of the Russian Federation. 2) Relevant reform of international organizations to prevent their abuse by Russia, in particular, the deprivation of its right to “veto”. 3) The introduction of a powerful international peacekeeping contingent into the occupied territories. 4) The total prohibition of any form of pro-Russian propaganda, the trial of all the followers of the “Russian world”. 5) “Special status” of Donbas and Crimea – direct management from Kyiv, military-civilian administration and the prohibition of any elections for 30-50 years.”
Viktoria Hubska, social activist, volunteer:
“I think that we must fight not for the territory, but for the people. Trying to return their souls, their thoughts to Ukraine, ensuring economic growth, improving life, creating jobs”.
Serhii Baturin, writer:
“In my opinion, there is only one way: quietly withdraw from the Budapest agreements, quietly make a certain amount of nuclear charges and medium-range missiles, and then make a loud announcement: “If we will have such a need, we will use them”.
By Viktor Tsvilikhovskyi
