“Let’s go!” – said Gagarin, “Let’s see!” – promised Trump. The first said the famous saying in front of the unknown – the beginning of the human conquest of space, the second doubted the obvious things, the fact that Crimea is Ukraine. However, there is still time for the US president to see the topic at the right angle and not to sum up the results of the meeting with his Russian counterpart with the word “arrived”.
Long time no see
The uncertainty of the American president is troubling. Why is it so intriguing when in the US they officially decided on the Crimea’s belonging to Ukraine and do not forget to remind of this? The media even distributed a memo from The Heritage Foundation’s Analytical Center for Donald Trump on the eve of the NATO summit and a meeting with the president of the Russian Federation.
The meeting of Donald Trump with Vladimir Putin will take place on July 16, the second day after the end of the World Cup in Russia, and, obviously, the Russian president will still feel the aftertaste of the holiday. Communication behind closed doors, and then in the presence of assistants, will take place on a neutral territory – in Helsinki. This is not Reykjavik, equidistant from Moscow and Washington, where more than three decades ago the historic meeting between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev took place, but relatively close city to Putin’s native city of St. Petersburg. In the media of the aggressor country, even joked: the negotiations will continue on the territory of the Russian Empire, hinting at the belonging of the Finnish lands to their state a century ago.
Almost every President of the United States announced the need to establish relations with the Russian Federation, their “reset”. However, Putin’s aggressive appetites do not contribute much to the desire of the leaders of many civilized countries to communicate with him. Why does Trump not ignore the dictator? According to Pavlo Zhovnirenko, the chairman of the board of the Center for Strategic Studies, the principles of diplomacy state: it is necessary to maintain contacts with anyone in order to have a channel of information.
“On the other hand, it actually works for Putin – he achieved a summit meeting with the US president”, the expert told to DUMKA. “From the point of view of Putin and Russian propaganda, it is probably overshadowed how two superpowers are deciding the fate of the world since the issues of Europe, Syria and Ukraine will also be touched upon. This is the first. Second, the meeting will take place not only after the World Cup but also after the NATO summit and on the eve of the anniversary of the shooting down of the Malaysian liner. The question is: how much consciously or unconsciously Trump plays the game of Putin?”
“Putin is not in isolation. Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Makron and others have been communicating with him recently, so you should not create illusions”, said Yevhen Magda, executive director of the Institute of World Politics, to DUMKA. “I perceive the meeting between Putin and Trump in the context of the latter’s desire to show American voters the opportunity to communicate with dictators for the sake of America interests. In fact, this is the continuation of the logic of Trump’s actions, who in early June met with the leader of the DPRK Kim Jong-un. In the end, the negotiations of the leaders of countries with the largest nuclear arsenal are normal in the modern turbulent world. But do not forget that the US can significantly increase defense spending, but the Russian Federation – no”.
Reference
For one and a half years of the presidency, Donald Trump met twice with Vladimir Putin in the corridors of international summits. According to media reports, they communicated by phone at least eight times. Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, there has been no separate meeting between the US and Russian presidents.
Photo: bundesregierung.de
Syria is above all!
What will Putin and Trump talk about in private? Possible topics were voiced in the White House and the Kremlin. Among them are the problems of arms control, issues of strategic stability, the cornerstone of the meeting is Syria.
“The key issue for Trump is the problem of Syria – he publicly promised the withdrawal of US troops from this country,” Ihor Semyvolos, executive director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, confirmed DUMKA. “But he cannot do this, including through the Russian and Iranian presence”. Therefore, it is important for him to reach agreements with the Russians that would provide for a Russian and Iranian exit from this country and in parallel a reduction in the American presence or a complete withdrawal of US troops. This is very realistic today. We will see. Trump is a man, who knows how to haggle”.
Of course, the withdrawal of US troops from Syria means strengthening the presence of the Russian Federation in the Middle East. Therefore, this process should be accompanied by a mutual withdrawal of Russian and Iranian troops from there.
“If Trump has already made a promise, he is trying to implement it,” Mr. Semyvolos continued. “For example, the transfer of the US Embassy from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem. The topic is ambiguous, but he did it. Therefore, if Trump said that the US troops will be withdrawn, it means they will”.
In addition to Syria, Putin and Trump aim at Europe. There is the talk of a possible cessation of US military maneuvers with the European allies, and even the withdrawal of US troops from the Old World is not ruled out.
“This is all that Putin could have dreamed about,” Pavlo Zhovnirenko said. “Putin and Trump have the same unpredictable character. Both are narcissists and both are careless about the international obligations of their countries. Regarding Russia, this is aggression against Georgia and the actual separation of part of its territory. The same goes for Ukraine, interference in the affairs of other states, including the US about presidential elections. And when Trump says that Putin is a person with whom you can deal, then he has in mind exactly those features that unite them. This is very dangerous, not only the relations between the two countries depend on this, but also the fate of international law and the security system that has been built in Europe since 1945”.
Photo: reuters.com
So whose the Crimea is?
Of course, we worry about Ukrainian issues, in particular, the status of the Crimea, the situation in Donbas, the fate of our prisoners, incarcerated by the Kremlin, economic sanctions against the Russian Federation. Judging by the statements of the White House and the assurances of the domestic specialists, Trump will touch upon these topics. However, in the Crimea, Putin’s press secretary Dmitrii Peskov rejected the possibility of talking about the status of the peninsula. Like, the Crimea is Russian, end of story.
“I do not think that the status of the Crimea will be discussed, it is a very global issue,” said Olga Kurnosova, a Russian politician in exile, to DUMKA. “Besides, Trump does not have the authority to deal with such issues”. In America, there is a democracy, and such global decisions are taken differently there. But as for the issues of Ukrainian political prisoners or a ceasefire in Donbas, it is quite possible. Probably, the topic of the introduction of peacekeepers to Donbas will also be considered. If negotiations pass badly, then on the fronts may be exacerbation. If it is productive for the Kremlin, then we may not expect an exacerbation”.
“Russia’s position in this issue is emphatically unshakable because #КрымНаш (The Crimea is ours – translation from Russian) is one of the basic slogans of modern Russian politics,” said Yevhen Magda. “However, I have no reason to believe that Donald Trump recognizes the annexation of the Crimea. In the end, the States did not recognize the occupation of the Baltic republics by the Soviet Union”.
The US position in supporting the territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty of Ukraine in internationally recognized borders is unchangeable. This is constantly stressed by American politicians and officials,” Ivanna Klympush-Tsyntsadze, Vice Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine, said.
“Therefore, we expect that it would be taken into account this position of the United States and there will be a conversation between the US and Russia,” the minister continued. “We have been trying for four years to use diplomatic and political means to decide on how to stop Russia’s aggression against Ukraine”.
Photo: eldiariodecoahuila.com
The prisoners of the Kremlin
Under the current state of things, the starvation of Volodymyr Balukh, convicted by the Russian court to five years in a general-regime colony at the time of the Helsinki meeting will be 120 days. Almost four months! The 64th day of Oleg Sentsov starving, whose term of imprisonment is 20 years. Attempts of the Ukrainian President, Ombudswoman, human rights activists to achieve the release of the Kremlin prisoners are unsuccessful.
Is this topic close to Trump, will he intercede for our prisoners? According to Yevhen Magda, if this happens, we can talk about the success of Ukrainian diplomacy. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the World Congress of the Ukrainian, the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America, still have time to reach out to the US President.
“We raise the issue of the release of Ukrainian prisoners at all levels, negotiations,” noted Ivanna Klympush-Tsyntsadze. “There is a clear support for this position of all our partners from the Western world. At the same time, we do not see Russia’s readiness to implement even the smallest agreements reached, for example, on the access of Ms. Denisova to Ukrainian political prisoners, who are illegally detained on the territory of the Russian Federation. We will continue this pressure”.
“The fate of the captives, however cynical this may seem, is a bargaining chip for Putin,” Vasyl Yablonsky, deputy director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, told to DUMKA. “Knowing how important for Western partners are human rights issues, he obviously uses prisoners for bidding, pressure. He can also give it as his good will. Therefore, it is quite possible that the problem will be positively resolved, if there are hints on issues that really bother Russia – some road map, the abolition of at least part of the sanctions or the distribution of the sphere of geopolitical interests, as the Russian Federation insists, following the ideas of the middle of the past century”.
Will they agree?
Specialists say that Trump may also touch upon the topic of the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline. The implementation of this project, supported primarily by Russia, Germany and Austria, undermines the economic strength of Ukraine as a transit country for “blue” fuel. The US is against the Nord Stream – 2, not so much because of solidarity with us, but because of its own business interests. They see Russia as a competitor in the energy market, therefore they intend to supply their liquefied gas to Europe. True, while the US cannot offer anything concrete, and in the Old World this idea does not find a strong support.
So how the meeting of the leaders of the two great countries may end? Who will be beaten by whom: an experienced businessman Trump or no less experienced special services agent Putin? Will Ukraine receive any dividends from the negotiations?
“I do not see an opportunity to turn the meeting in Helsinki into a “microwave oven” that will unfreeze Russian-American relations, which are close to the freezing level,” Yevhen Magda is convinced. “Donald Trump cannot solve the issue of US sanctions against Russia alone, it is not too profitable for him, given the future midterm elections to Congress. Most likely, we will observe the war of interpretations between the conventional Trump tweeter account and the Russian propaganda machine immediately after the meeting”.
“Donald Trump can touch upon any question in any format,” Ihor Semyvolos assured. “In the framework of a closed meeting, he can discuss anything in his characteristic manner. Given that Trump continues to “sell air”, there will be no serious consequences for us. On the contrary, there will be probing and bidding. And if Putin considers any concession to the Americans in the framework of his ideas about the world as a defeat (just like for the population of Russia – the 80% that rose from their knees), then for Trump it’s just a bid. He has a different view of life”.
The negotiations between the two presidents behind closed doors do not mean that they will necessarily agree on something. Pavlo Zhovnirenko would not want any arrangements, because it works for Putin. Putin knows what he wants from Trump, but Trump wants only friendship and, according to the expert, has practically no conditions.
“Russia wants to close the status quo of the Crimea, Ukraine, so that the US does not deal with European affairs, does not pay attention to those things that the Russian Federation did – whether it was interfere in the elections in the United States, the shooting down of the Malaysian Boeing, the poison at Salisbury, or anything else,” said Mr. Zhovnirenko. “That is, just to be friends. But Russia can only be friends with those, whom it respects, and it respects only those, whom it fears. Therefore, Trump, stating that they can normally be friends, only provokes Russia to a more aggressive policy”.
We will wait for the meeting in Helsinki. Still, Finland, despite its neighborhood with Russia, cannot be called a warm bath for Putin. This country was not only a part of the Russian Empire but also in its time knocked the Soviet Union’s teeth out for the aggressive actions, the legal successor of which is the Russian Federation. Perhaps the meeting with the US president in Helsinki for the Russian dictator will be a cold summer of 1918 and he will have to admit that they “arrived”.
Text by Viktor Tsvilikhovsky
