Over the last few years, the conviction that we will be able to return Crimea and Donbas only by means of reforms and some economic breakthrough has rooted in the minds of Ukraine’s political elite, the establishment and Ukrainian civil society in general. We have no doubts that once we have better living conditions, there will be no need anymore to apply force to return anybody.
This message has been repeatedly delivered by the President in his speeches and comments, this belief has been broadcast by real and pretend experts on TV dozen of times, the Danish Foreign Minister, even approvingly remarked in his recent article that, “successful reforms in Ukraine are the best answer to Russian aggression and misinformation”.
Perhaps, it is easy to think that reforms are the best response to the aggression somewhere from Denmark, but in Ukraine we know too well that the best response is a punch in the invader’s mouth, a decisive armed rebuff to his army and the fifth column. The expansion of the terrorist “republics” of the Donbas was stopped not through brilliant reforms but owing to the army, self-sacrificing volunteer battalions, national unity and mutual support.
In other words, cheerful and seemingly wise statements in reality will not help us return Crimea and/or Donbas. Because, first, the outlook of the local population is not always and not in everything, to put it mildly, pro-Ukrainian. Of course, it is very easy to say that people there are Soviet-oriented, for whom the availability of a stick of sausage is crucial. In fact, they are just like us, with their own views, preferences and principles. And it is highly unlikely that the higher standard of living in Ukraine would make those people betray their principles, which are part of their identity.
Check out this thesis on yourself. Imagine that Russia has suddenly begun to develop, introducing new technologies and producing something other than tea-urns. Imagine that death is no longer the main export product of Russia. That “Zhiguli” no longer starts only at the fifteenth time and its cabin does not smell like exhaust gases. That the kokoshnik does not rub the head any longer, and they add hamon and arugula into shchi [Russian cabbage soup — translator]. Will it change your attitude toward Russia? Will you initiate the entry of Ukraine into the Russian Federation? Highly unlikely. So why hope that people in the occupied territories suddenly decide to get back to the United Motherland?
I do not even mention that our “economic breakthrough” is still all up in the air. May God help us wait until it happens.
Neither will Ukraine’s success change conditions of the “concentration camp” inside Russia. Let us be true to ourselves: we do not believe that the population of the occupied territories will be able to organize itself and hold an honest referendum, after which these regions will return to Ukraine without any problem. It’s a fantasy.
It is also unlikely that we have enough power to take those regions back applying force: despite the courage of our Armed Forces, it would be a suicide to attack an aggressive, armed-to-the-teeth empire.
So, what is left?
Even if Putin were discharged, any “coup d’état”, when not a KGB-successor comes to power, but those whom the Kremlin now considers as an opposition, any change in Crimean status should not be expected. The views of Navalny and Co. are equally imperialistic, so the miracle will not happen and Russian democracy will end where Crimea Ukrainian issue begins.
The only realistic scenario for Crimea’s return (for Putin will try to “give us back” the occupied Donbas under the disguise of the “Trojan horse” to destroy Ukraine from the inside) is turbulence, instability, revolution or disintegration in the Russian Federation.
In the case of such a positive scenario, Ukraine will truly be able to provide stability and security to the peninsula at such a difficult moment. But still, Ukraine will have to take some gestures towards amnesty, autonomy and special rights to reach agreement.
That is the reality, whether you like it or not.
Which, in fact, does not mean that we do not need to reform Ukraine.
Andriy Lyubka